CARDIFF BUSINESS SCHOOL DISCUSSION PAPER Predicting Recession in the USA and UK in the Inter-war period
نویسندگان
چکیده
The aim of this paper is to test the information content of the term premium in predicting the inter-war recessions in the USA and UK. A probit model is used to explain a binary variable identifying recessions with the term premium as the explanatory variable. We find that the term spread is a good predictor of the US business cycle in the inter-war period and is moderately successful in predicting the UK business cycle. JEL Classification: E1, E3, N1 Corresponding Author: Kent Matthews Cardiff Business School Colum Drive Cardiff CF1 3EU Wales, UK Tel: 00-44-2920875855 e-mail: [email protected] This paper is preliminary and should not be quoted without permission. Comments welcome
منابع مشابه
On the Use of Acoustic Emission and Digital Image Correlation for Welded Joints Damage Characterization
A series of tests have been conducted to investigate fatigue damage characterization in corroded welded steel plates using structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques. Acoustic Emission (AE) is a non-destructive testing (NDT) technique with potential applications for locating and monitoring fatigue cracks in service. In the present work, AE is implemented to characterize damage during crack e...
متن کاملSystemic atherosclerotic plaque vulnerability in patients with Coronary Artery Disease with a single Whole Body [FDG]PET-CT scan
Objective(s): Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of morbimortality with over half cardiovascular events occurring in the asymptomatic population by traditional risk stratification. This preliminary study aimed to evaluate systemic plaque vulnerability in patients with prior Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) with a single Whole Body [FDG] PET-CT scan in terms of plaq...
متن کاملBrand-related and situational influences on demand elasticity
a Consumer Behavior Analysis Research Group, Cardiff University, UK b Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Aberconway Building, Colum Drive, Cardiff CF10 3EU, UK c Xiangtan University, China d Instituto de Psicologia, Universidade de Brasılia, Campus Universita ́rio–Asa Norte, Brasılia, DF 70910–900, Brazil e Durham Business School, Durham University, UK f Durham Business School, Mill Hi...
متن کاملThe Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Business Cycles in Iran: Markov Switching Model with Time Varying Transition Probabilities (MS-TVTP)
The business cycles are one of the most important economic indicators that they show the changes in economic activities during time. The study of business cycles is important because the understanding fluctuations in GDP and effective factors on these fluctuations help policy makers to plan better and more efficient. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shoc...
متن کاملThe Role of Culture in Sports Sponsorship: an Update
Nowadays sponsorship is an important part of sports events. Sports sponsorship offers more benefits, more variety and also it’s a more powerful form of marketing. In general, sponsorship holds a unique position in the marketing mix because it is effective in building brand awareness, provides different marketing platforms and valuable networking and hospitality opportunities. Sponsorship market...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2001